When Will the Cuban Trade Embargo End?

Cuba has been topical recently with the announcement by Raul Castro and President Obama, of the exchange of prisoners (in particular Alan Goss) and announcements of an ease of certain restrictions. Obama, one might argue, is keen to add another chapter to his future autobiography and the Cuba chapter would make a fitting end to his presidency.

The question though of when the trade embargo will and can be lifted is a very different matter. Releasing a few prisoners and changing some small laws such as the amount of customs items one can take back into USA, or the ability to use U.S. credit cards is a very far cry from completely eliminating all restrictions and making the 50 year plus embargo, a piece of history. The joint move by Raul Castro and Barak Obama I would suggest if a very positive move forward though. What is needed to end the U.S. embargo once and for all though and what would it take?

Ending the Embargo

US Congress - It is not as straight forward as what it might first seem. President Obama alone does not have the authority with which to end the embargo. To do so, the U.S. congress would need to pass legislation to end the embargo, hence, any moves by Obama to end the somewhat antiquated embargo, are impossible without support from a majority of the U.S. senate. There is opposition from the likes of Senator Marco Rubio who recently described the recent address on Cuba by Obama, as potentially harmful to the people of Cuba, with the insinuation that greater funds would simply be used to further repress the people of Cuba.

The Cuban Government - One could almost be forgiven for thinking that in discusssions on television and in the media, that agreement were only needed on the US. side, for full relations to be resumed between Cuba and the U.S. One contention by the Cuban government is that if relations were to be normalized, one condition by the existing government is that Cuba wishes the right to be able to continue as a one party government and to

What Has Changed?

So has anything actually changed, you can be forgiven for asking? Talks are ongoing as we speak between Cuba and America and Roberta Jacobson (the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State) is due to visit Cuba in the coming week, to discuss relations and matters relating to the embargo.

In the meantime, there are very specific changes, which I laid out recently in the post on USA to Cuba trade changes, and these changes may be just the beginning or far greater changes. To summarise again the main changes:

• U.S. credit cards can now be used in Cuba.
• USD$400 worth of goods can now be imported back into USA from Cuba by tourists.
• Certain groups of travellers from the United States, who did not previously qualify to travel, now do qualify. These groups include those who fit into certain work groups such as humanitarian workers and industry experts in certain sectors.

Speed of Change

We should not expect a rapid thaw in relations to match the speed of change we experienced in Germany, when the Berlin wall came down. The thaw in Cuban American relations is likely to be a timely and gradual one, albeit one which many will agree is long overdue. The answer to when the trade embargo will end is a question that cannot be answered at this time, but what is important to appreciate is that change will be gradual. Change is happeningt hough and it is hard to disagree with Obama that the Cuban embargo and restrictions are outdated. What was deemed appropriate fifty years ago and which seems not to have worked anyway, certainly seems unneeded now and in need of change.

Inside Cuba, there is a feeling of great positive hope, of improvements to the every day lifestyle of Cubans, of American goods being accessible, of the internet being something which will come finally to Cuba and the island opening up to international trade. These are exciting times for Cuba but do not expect too much too quickly!